Super Scientific Experimentation

The Super Scientific Tachyon has been hard at work at optimizing her efficiency while in the lab. Her latest research has revealed important data, furthering the progress of speedy science. In an effort to aid other Sentinels in their fight against the criminals who threaten the Multiverse, she has made her research data public!

Since this is Science we’re talking about here, we need a hypothesis. We are able to mathematically compute the probabilities of what will happen on any given deck if The Super Scientific Tachyon experiments on it. Let’s assume the decks are full.

To compute the chance of playing cards, we look at every possible pair of cards in the deck (including multiple copies of each card). Hero decks have 40 cards, which makes 1560 pairs (a card cannot pair with itself). Villains have 600 pairs and environments have 210. For each pair we check if they share a keyword. If so, that deck gets a “point.” Add up the points and divide by the total number of pairs, and you have the result!

Deck	% Chance of Playing	% Chance of Discarding
Absolute Zero	38.59	61.41
Akash'Thriya	30.38	69.62
The Argent Adept	36.92	63.08
Benchmark	36.03	63.97
Bowman	55.00	45.00
Bunker	40.00	60.00
Captain Cosmic	41.92	58.08
Captain Thunder	51.92	48.08
Chrono-Ranger	42.69	57.31
Daedalus	44.74	55.26
Dr. Metropolis	33.85	66.15
Eldritch	70.77	29.23
Expatriette	48.21	51.79
Fanatic	45.00	55.00
Guise	48.72	51.28
Haka	43.08	56.92
The Harpy	40.77	59.23
Johnny Rocket	48.85	51.15
K.N.Y.F.E.	43.59	56.41
La Comodora	37.56	62.44
Lady Liberty	49.23	50.77
Lantern Jack	50.77	49.23
Legacy	58.72	41.28
Lifeline	43.72	56.28
Luminary	44.10	55.90
Mr. Fixer	31.79	68.21
The Naturalist	49.23	50.77
NightMist	48.59	51.41
Omnitron-X	33.46	66.54
Parse	48.72	51.28
Pseudo	61.54	38.46
Ra	43.08	56.92
The Raven	37.31	62.69
The Scholar	49.87	50.13
The Sentinels	66.67	33.33
Setback	53.33	46.67
Siren	52.18	47.82
Sky-Scraper	44.49	55.51
Star Knight	48.72	51.28
Stuntman	52.69	47.31
Tachyon	64.49	35.51
Tempest	45.64	54.36
Unity	31.79	68.21
The Visionary	46.54	53.46
Void Guard Dr. Medico	48.85	51.15
Void Guard Mainstay	46.92	53.08
Void Guard The Idealist	51.92	48.08
Void Guard Writhe	40.64	59.36
The Wraith	49.62	50.38
Akash'Bhuta	36.00	64.00
Ambuscade	32.00	68.00
Apostate	26.00	74.00
Argo	66.67	33.33
Baron Blade	26.00	74.00
La Capitán	35.00	65.00
The Chairman	33.33	66.67
Chokepoint	52.00	48.00
Citizen Dawn	36.00	64.00
Deadline	54.00	46.00
The Dreamer	58.00	42.00
The Ennead	100.00	0.00
GloomWeaver	15.33	84.67
Grand Warlord Voss	41.67	58.33
Hades	34.67	65.33
Infinitor	50.00	50.00
Iron Legacy	50.00	50.00
Kaargra Warfang	48.57	51.43
Kismet	66.67	33.33
Malador	68.12	31.88
Grue Meta-Mind	37.33	62.67
The Matriarch	39.00	61.00
Miss Information	36.33	63.67
Omega	34.00	66.00
Omnitron	32.67	67.33
Plague Rat	44.33	55.67
Progeny	32.67	67.33
Spite	27.17	72.83
Wager Master	44.00	56.00
Ambuscade	31.05	68.95
Baron Blade	30.00	70.00
Biomancer	38.42	61.58
Bugbear	45.79	54.21
La Capitan	48.95	51.05
Citizens Hammer & Anvil	48.95	51.05
Ermine	33.16	66.84
Friction	51.58	48.42
Fright Train	51.58	48.42
Greazer	29.47	70.53
Miss Information	34.74	65.26
The Operative	64.74	35.26
Plague Rat	49.47	50.53
Proletariat	23.68	76.32
Sergeant Steel	30.53	69.47
The Block	19.05	80.95
The Celestial Tribunal	23.81	76.19
Champion Studios	11.43	88.57
The Court of Blood	14.29	85.71
Dok'Thorath Capital	15.24	84.76
The Enclave of the Endlings	0.00	100.00
Farside City	13.33	86.67
Fort Adamant	30.48	69.52
The Final Wasteland	62.86	37.14
Freedom City	20.00	80.00
Freedom Tower	52.38	47.62
Insula Primalis	20.00	80.00
Madame Mittermeier's Fantastical Festival of Conundrums and Curiosities	26.67	73.33
Maerynian Refuge	26.67	73.33
Magmaria	23.81	76.19
Megalopolis	0.95	99.05
Mobile Defense Platform	22.86	77.14
Mordengrad	19.05	80.95
Nexus of the Void	25.71	74.29
Omnitron IV	40.00	60.00
Pike Industrial Complex	20.00	80.00
Realm of Discord	20.00	80.00
Rook City	0.00	100.00
Ruins of Atlantis	2.86	97.14
Silver Gulch, 1883	20.00	80.00
Sub-Terra	17.14	82.86
Tartarus	40.00	60.00
The Temple of Zhu Long	14.29	85.71
The Terminus	23.81	76.19
Time Cataclysm	62.86	37.14
Tomb of Anubis	23.81	76.19
Wagner Mars Base	0.00	100.00
OblivAeon	78.00	22.00
The Aeon Men Deck	100.00	0.00
The Scion Deck	100.00	0.00

Again with the Science, we need to run an experiment or two, and see if reality matches up with our expectation. Here are the results of trying “Experiment” 1,000,000 times on each full deck, reshuffled each time. It’s the Monte Carlo method at work!

Deck	% Chance of Playing	% Chance of Discarding
Absolute Zero	38.57	61.43
Akash'Thriya	30.39	69.61
The Argent Adept	36.93	63.07
Benchmark	36.07	63.93
Bowman	54.92	45.08
Bunker	40.02	59.98
Captain Cosmic	41.93	58.07
Captain Thunder	52.03	47.97
Chrono-Ranger	42.73	57.27
Daedalus	44.76	55.24
Dr. Metropolis	33.79	66.21
Eldritch	70.70	29.30
Expatriette	48.15	51.85
Fanatic	45.01	54.99
Guise	48.82	51.18
Haka	43.10	56.90
The Harpy	40.78	59.22
Johnny Rocket	48.86	51.14
K.N.Y.F.E.	43.52	56.48
La Comodora	37.53	62.47
Lady Liberty	49.29	50.71
Lantern Jack	50.73	49.27
Legacy	58.76	41.24
Lifeline	43.75	56.25
Luminary	44.08	55.92
Mr. Fixer	31.77	68.23
The Naturalist	49.28	50.72
NightMist	48.66	51.34
Omnitron-X	33.50	66.50
Parse	48.76	51.24
Pseudo	61.52	38.48
Ra	43.10	56.90
The Raven	37.29	62.71
The Scholar	49.84	50.16
The Sentinels	66.70	33.30
Setback	53.36	46.64
Siren	52.24	47.76
Sky-Scraper	44.57	55.43
Star Knight	48.60	51.40
Stuntman	52.69	47.31
Tachyon	64.49	35.51
Tempest	45.68	54.32
Unity	31.78	68.22
The Visionary	46.51	53.49
Void Guard Dr. Medico	48.73	51.27
Void Guard Mainstay	46.97	53.03
Void Guard The Idealist	52.02	47.98
Void Guard Writhe	40.57	59.43
The Wraith	49.71	50.29
Akash'Bhuta	36.03	63.97
Ambuscade	31.98	68.02
Apostate	26.04	73.96
Argo	66.75	33.25
Baron Blade	26.00	74.01
La Capitán	35.05	64.95
The Chairman	33.32	66.68
Chokepoint	52.04	47.96
Citizen Dawn	36.02	63.98
Deadline	54.03	45.97
The Dreamer	58.05	41.95
The Ennead	100.00	0.00
GloomWeaver	15.30	84.70
Grand Warlord Voss	41.74	58.26
Hades	34.62	65.38
Infinitor	50.00	50.00
Iron Legacy	50.10	49.90
Kaargra Warfang	48.54	51.46
Kismet	66.64	33.36
Malador	68.06	31.94
Grue Meta-Mind	37.32	62.68
The Matriarch	39.00	61.00
Miss Information	36.31	63.69
Omega	34.00	66.00
Omnitron	32.72	67.28
Plague Rat	44.37	55.63
Progeny	32.75	67.25
Spite	27.28	72.72
Wager Master	43.96	56.04
Ambuscade	31.01	68.99
Baron Blade	30.03	69.97
Biomancer	38.46	61.54
Bugbear	45.81	54.19
La Capitan	49.01	50.99
Citizens Hammer & Anvil	48.93	51.07
Ermine	33.10	66.90
Friction	51.47	48.53
Fright Train	51.61	48.39
Greazer	29.45	70.55
Miss Information	34.72	65.28
The Operative	64.86	35.14
Plague Rat	49.52	50.48
Proletariat	23.71	76.29
Sergeant Steel	30.45	69.55
The Block	19.01	80.99
The Celestial Tribunal	23.83	76.17
Champion Studios	11.45	88.55
The Court of Blood	14.32	85.68
Dok'Thorath Capital	15.17	84.83
The Enclave of the Endlings	0.00	100.00
Farside City	13.29	86.71
Fort Adamant	30.49	69.51
The Final Wasteland	62.88	37.12
Freedom City	20.07	79.93
Freedom Tower	52.37	47.63
Insula Primalis	20.03	79.97
Madame Mittermeier's Fantastical Festival of Conundrums and Curiosities	26.72	73.28
Maerynian Refuge	26.67	73.33
Magmaria	23.82	76.18
Megalopolis	0.95	99.05
Mobile Defense Platform	22.86	77.14
Mordengrad	19.02	80.98
Nexus of the Void	25.72	74.28
Omnitron IV	40.05	59.95
Pike Industrial Complex	20.05	79.95
Realm of Discord	20.07	79.93
Rook City	0.00	100.00
Ruins of Atlantis	2.87	97.13
Silver Gulch, 1883	20.02	79.98
Sub-Terra	17.13	82.87
Tartarus	39.94	60.06
The Temple of Zhu Long	14.28	85.72
The Terminus	23.88	76.12
Time Cataclysm	62.86	37.14
Tomb of Anubis	23.72	76.28
Wagner Mars Base	0.00	100.00
OblivAeon	78.00	22.00
The Aeon Men Deck	100.00	0.00
The Scion Deck	100.00	0.00

Those numbers are in line with our predictions! We’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to compute the confidence intervals, because we are lazy scientists.

Conclusions gathered from the research data:

• All environments have a high probability of discarding, with Wagner Mars Base and Megalopolis (almost) having a 100% probability.

  • PRO TIP: Use The Visionary to put a dangerous Environment card or two on the bottom of the deck, and have Tachyon discard them!

• Tachyon and Legacy are the best heroes to experiment on, for their higher probability of playing cards.

  • PRO TIP: Keep in mind that you’re not usually using Experiment on a full deck. Two early game Lightspeed Barrages can be a shame!

• The Wraith has a nearly 50/50 chance of either playing or discarding cards.

  • PRO TIP: Never try to knock The Wraith off balance, it’s impossible.

• Absolute Zero and Bunker are the worst heroes to experiment on, for their lower probability of playing cards.

  • PRO TIP: Ryan Frost has been experimented on quite enough in his day, thank you very much.

• On average, villains have a 34% chance of playing cards and a 66% chance of discarding them.

  • PRO TIP: You can almost safely experiment on Baron Blade to make him discard... which falls right into his dastardly plot! MWUAHAHAHAHAHA!

Update: Expansion data!

July 2, 2015: The tables above have been updated with decks from Mini-Pack 1, Rook City and Infernal Relics. Some experimental notes of interest:

• The Ennead have a 100% probability of playing both cards, because their non-character cards are all One-Shots!

  • PRO TIP: Don't. Seriously, just don't.

• Rook City joins the list of environments that have a 100% probability of discarding.

  • PRO TIP: Any edge you can get in Rook City is worth taking!

• Each expansion has a hero with a roughly 50/50 chance of playing, and one with a much poorer chance of playing.

  • PRO TIP: NightMist and The Argent Adept can help set up the bottom of any deck for guaranteed results.

• Unity takes the crown as the worst hero to experiment on by probability.

  • PRO TIP: Unity is not uptight about science, but the chance of getting two bots in play may be worth the risk!

Update 2: More expansion data!

July 13: 2017: It's two years later, and the tables above have been updated with decks from Mini-Pack 2, Shattered Timelines, Wrath of the Cosmos, Mini-Pack 3, Vengeance, and Villains of the Multiverse. Whew! Some notes:

• The Sentinels have the highest probability of success of any hero deck at 66.67% (2/3 exactly). Setback is the next highest of the new class at 53.33%.

  • PRO TIP: Go ahead, experiment on Setback. What could possibly go wrong?

• Kismet has the exact same chance of "success" as The Sentinels do, if you're looking to get jinxed. Still might not be the best idea to experiment on the villain.

  • PRO TIP: If you're looking to try to get more clues in play quickly, it might be worth a shot to experiment on Miss Information.

• The Enclave of the Endlings can never play a card via Experiment. Each Endling is unique!

  • PRO TIP: Keep in mind the numbers for The Temple of Zhu Long may be a bit deceiving, since Shinobi Assassins cannot be merely discarded...

• Out of all the 15 team villains, the deck with the most chance of discarding cards is Proletariat at 23.68%.

  • PRO TIP: Sad Proletariat is sad.

• You can experiment on Kaargra Warfang's Title Deck, which isn't listed above. The odds of success are 100% since all Title cards have the same keyword!

  • PRO TIP: Creative cheating is encouraged in the Bloodsworn Colosseum.

Update 3: The last update!

October 26: 2023: We were going to update this with OblivAeon, but.. we got busy. Now we’ve got even more stuff to add: Mini-Pack 4, Mini-Pack 5: Void Guard, OblivAeon, Sentinels of Earth-Prime, and the Magical Mysteries Mini-Pack. That’s all! It’s over! Go home! But first, some notes:

• Move over, Southwest Sentinels, there’s a new king: Eldritch, with a 70.77% chance! Turns out having only Spells and Relics in your deck is good for experimenting with.

  • PRO TIP: Bowman playing Scavenge the Field out of turn is pretty great, too.

• The worst Earth-Prime hero to experiment on is Dr. Metropolis, with an only 33.85% chance to play a card.

  • PRO TIP: Carrion Crane powers up with Locations in the trash!

• OblivAeon does not take kindly to experimentation in any form. Do not recommend.

  • PRO TIP: Don’t even think about the Mission Deck, it’s not allowed!

• Feel free to run your own calculations for Steam Workshop content!

  • PRO TIP: We added source code for that to the Sample Mod on GitHub.