Super Scientific Experimentation

The Super Scientific Tachyon has been hard at work at optimizing her efficiency while in the lab. Her latest research has revealed important data, furthering the progress of speedy science. In an effort to aid other Sentinels in their fight against the criminals who threaten the Multiverse, she has made her research data public!

Since this is Science we’re talking about here, we need a hypothesis. We are able to mathematically compute the probabilities of what will happen on any given deck if The Super Scientific Tachyon experiments on it. Let’s assume the decks are full.

To compute the chance of playing cards, we look at every possible pair of cards in the deck (including multiple copies of each card). Hero decks have 40 cards, which makes 1560 pairs (a card cannot pair with itself). Villains have 600 pairs and environments have 210. For each pair we check if they share a keyword. If so, that deck gets a “point.” Add up the points and divide by the total number of pairs, and you have the result!

Deck

% Chance of Playing

% Chance of Discarding

 Absolute Zero

 38.59

 61.41

 The Argent Adept

 36.92

 63.08

 Bunker

 40.00

 60.00

 Captain Cosmic

 41.92

 58.08

 Chrono-Ranger

 42.69

 57.31

 Expatriette

 48.21

 51.79

 Fanatic

 45.00

 55.00

 Guise

 48.72

 51.28

 Haka

 43.08

 56.92

 K.N.Y.F.E.

 43.59

 56.41

 Legacy

 58.72

 41.28

 Mr. Fixer

 31.79

 68.21

 The Naturalist

 49.23

 50.77

 NightMist

 48.59

 51.41

 Omnitron-X

 33.46

 66.54

 Parse

 48.72

 51.28

 Ra

 43.08

 56.92

 The Scholar

 49.87

 50.13

 The Sentinels

 66.67

 33.33

 Setback

 53.33

 46.67

 Sky-Scraper

 44.49

 55.51

 Tachyon

 64.49

 35.51

 Tempest

 45.64

 54.36

 Unity

 31.79

 68.21

 The Visionary

 46.54

 53.46

 The Wraith

 49.62

 50.38

 Akash'Bhuta

 36.00

 64.00

 Ambuscade

 32.00

 68.00

 Apostate

 26.00

 74.00

 Baron Blade

 26.00

 74.00

 La Capitán

 35.00

 65.00

 The Chairman

 33.33

 66.67

 Chokepoint

 52.00

 48.00

 Citizen Dawn

 36.00

 64.00

 Deadline

 54.00

 46.00

 The Dreamer

 58.00

 42.00

 The Ennead

 100.00

 0.00

 GloomWeaver

 15.33

 84.67

 Grand Warlord Voss

 41.67

 58.33

 Infinitor

 50.00

 50.00

 Iron Legacy

 50.00

 50.00

 Kaargra Warfang

 48.57

 51.43

 Kismet

 66.67

 33.33

 The Matriarch

 39.00

 61.00

 Miss Information

 36.33

 63.67

 Omnitron

 32.67

 67.33

 Plague Rat

 44.33

 55.67

 Progeny

 32.67

 67.33

 Spite

 27.17

 72.83

 Wager Master

 44.00

 56.00

 Ambuscade

 31.05

 68.95

 Baron Blade

 30.00

 70.00

 Biomancer

 38.42

 61.58

 Bugbear

 45.79

 54.21

 La Capitan

 48.95

 51.05

 Citizens Hammer & Anvil

 48.95

 51.05

 Ermine

 33.16

 66.84

 Friction

 51.58

 48.42

 Fright Train

 51.58

 48.42

 Greazer

 29.47

 70.53

 Miss Information

 34.74

 65.26

 The Operative

 64.74

 35.26

 Plague Rat

 49.47

 50.53

 Proletariat

 23.68

 76.32

 Sergeant Steel

 30.53

 69.47

 The Block

 19.05

 80.95

 The Court of Blood

 14.29

 85.71

 Dok'Thorath Capital

 15.24

 84.76

 The Enclave of the Endlings

 0.00

 100.00

 The Final Wasteland

 62.86

 37.14

 Freedom Tower

 52.38

 47.62

 Insula Primalis

 20.00

 80.00

 Madame Mittermeier's Fantastical Festival of Conundrums and Curiosities

 26.67

 73.33

 Magmaria

 23.81

 76.19

 Megalopolis

 0.00

 100.00

 Mobile Defense Platform

 22.86

 77.14

 Omnitron IV

 40.00

 60.00

 Pike Industrial Complex

 20.00

 80.00

 Realm of Discord

 20.00

 80.00

 Rook City

 0.00

 100.00

 Ruins of Atlantis

 2.86

 97.14

 Silver Gulch, 1883

 20.00

 80.00

 The Temple of Zhu Long

 14.29

 85.71

 Time Cataclysm

 62.86

 37.14

 Tomb of Anubis

 23.81

 76.19

 Wagner Mars Base

 0.00

 100.00

Again with the Science, we need to run an experiment or two, and see if reality matches up with our expectation. Here are the results of trying “Experiment” 1,000,000 times on each full deck, reshuffled each time. It’s the Monte Carlo method at work!

Deck

% Chance of Playing

% Chance of Discarding

 Absolute Zero

 38.58

 61.42

 The Argent Adept

 36.94

 63.06

 Bunker

 39.92

 60.08

 Captain Cosmic

 41.90

 58.10

 Chrono-Ranger

 42.61

 57.39

 Expatriette

 48.19

 51.81

 Fanatic

 45.11

 54.89

 Guise

 48.69

 51.31

 Haka

 43.05

 56.95

 K.N.Y.F.E.

 43.52

 56.48

 Legacy

 58.62

 41.38

 Mr. Fixer

 31.80

 68.20

 The Naturalist

 49.23

 50.77

 NightMist

 48.45

 51.55

 Omnitron-X

 33.43

 66.57

 Parse

 48.73

 51.27

 Ra

 43.14

 56.86

 The Scholar

 49.87

 50.13

 The Sentinels

 66.70

 33.30

 Setback

 53.35

 46.65

 Sky-Scraper

 44.53

 55.47

 Tachyon

 64.48

 35.52

 Tempest

 45.64

 54.36

 Unity

 31.75

 68.25

 The Visionary

 46.59

 53.41

 The Wraith

 49.59

 50.41

 Akash'Bhuta

 35.96

 64.04

 Ambuscade

 31.97

 68.03

 Apostate

 25.96

 74.04

 Baron Blade

 26.01

 73.99

 La Capitán

 35.00

 65.00

 The Chairman

 33.32

 66.68

 Chokepoint

 51.95

 48.05

 Citizen Dawn

 36.02

 63.98

 Deadline

 54.02

 45.98

 The Dreamer

 58.00

 42.00

 The Ennead

 100.00

 0.00

 GloomWeaver

 15.35

 84.65

 Grand Warlord Voss

 41.63

 58.37

 Infinitor

 49.94

 50.06

 Iron Legacy

 49.97

 50.03

 Kaargra Warfang

 48.59

 51.41

 Kismet

 66.67

 33.33

 The Matriarch

 39.03

 60.97

 Miss Information

 36.36

 63.64

 Omnitron

 32.63

 67.37

 Plague Rat

 44.39

 55.61

 Progeny

 32.60

 67.40

 Spite

 27.19

 72.81

 Wager Master

 44.12

 55.88

 Ambuscade

 31.06

 68.94

 Baron Blade

 30.08

 69.92

 Biomancer

 38.48

 61.52

 Bugbear

 45.84

 54.16

 La Capitan

 48.99

 51.01

 Citizens Hammer & Anvil

 48.93

 51.07

 Ermine

 33.16

 66.84

 Friction

 51.65

 48.35

 Fright Train

 51.51

 48.49

 Greazer

 29.56

 70.44

 Miss Information

 34.70

 65.30

 The Operative

 64.78

 35.22

 Plague Rat

 49.54

 50.46

 Proletariat

 23.73

 76.27

 Sergeant Steel

 30.63

 69.37

 The Block

 19.04

 80.96

 The Court of Blood

 14.27

 85.73

 Dok'Thorath Capital

 15.26

 84.74

 The Enclave of the Endlings

 0.00

 100.00

 The Final Wasteland

 62.73

 37.27

 Freedom Tower

 52.43

 47.57

 Insula Primalis

 19.98

 80.02

 Madame Mittermeier's Fantastical Festival of Conundrums and Curiosities

 26.69

 73.31

 Magmaria

 23.81

 76.19

 Megalopolis

 0.00

 100.00

 Mobile Defense Platform

 22.92

 77.08

 Omnitron IV

 39.95

 60.05

 Pike Industrial Complex

 20.05

 79.95

 Realm of Discord

 20.12

 79.88

 Rook City

 0.00

 100.00

 Ruins of Atlantis

 2.85

 97.15

 Silver Gulch, 1883

 19.93

 80.07

 The Temple of Zhu Long

 14.29

 85.71

 Time Cataclysm

 62.87

 37.13

 Tomb of Anubis

 23.82

 76.18

 Wagner Mars Base

 0.00

 100.00

Those numbers are in line with our predictions! We’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to compute the confidence intervals, because we are lazy scientists.

Conclusions gathered from the research data:

  • All environments have a high probability of discarding, with Megalopolis and Wagner Mars Base having a 100% probability.
    • PRO TIP: Use The Visionary to put a dangerous Environment card or two on the bottom of the deck, and have Tachyon discard them!
  • Tachyon and Legacy are the best heroes to experiment on, for their higher probability of playing cards.
    • PRO TIP: Keep in mind that you’re not usually using Experiment on a full deck. Two early game Lightspeed Barrages can be a shame!
  • The Wraith has a nearly 50/50 chance of either playing or discarding cards.
    • PRO TIP: Never try to knock The Wraith off balance, it’s impossible.
  • Absolute Zero and Bunker are the worst heroes to experiment on, for their lower probability of playing cards.
    • PRO TIP: Ryan Frost has been experimented on quite enough in his day, thank you very much.
  • On average, villains have a 34% chance of playing cards and a 66% chance of discarding them.
    • PRO TIP: You can almost safely experiment on Baron Blade to make him discard... which falls right into his dastardly plot! MWUAHAHAHAHAHA!

Update: Expansion data!

July 2, 2015: The tables above have been updated with decks from Mini-Pack 1, Rook City and Infernal Relics. Some experimental notes of interest:

  • The Ennead have a 100% probability of playing both cards, because their non-character cards are all One-Shots!
    • PRO TIP: Don't. Seriously, just don't.
  • Rook City joins the list of environments that have a 100% probability of discarding.
    • PRO TIP: Any edge you can get in Rook City is worth taking!
  • Each expansion has a hero with a roughly 50/50 chance of playing, and one with a much poorer chance of playing.
    • PRO TIP: NightMist and The Argent Adept can help set up the bottom of any deck for guaranteed results.
  • Unity takes the crown as the worst hero to experiment on by probability.
    • PRO TIP: Unity is not uptight about science, but the chance of getting two bots in play may be worth the risk!

Update 2: More expansion data!

July 13: 2017: It's two years later, and the tables above have been updated with decks from Mini-Pack 2, Shattered Timelines, Wrath of the Cosmos, Mini-Pack 3, Vengeance, and Villains of the Multiverse. Whew! Some notes:

  • The Sentinels have the highest probability of success of any hero deck at 66.67% (2/3 exactly). Setback is the next highest of the new class at 53.33%.
    • PRO TIP: Go ahead, experiment on Setback. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Kismet has the exact same chance of "success" as The Sentinels do, if you're looking to get jinxed. Still might not be the best idea to experiment on the villain.
    • PRO TIP: If you're looking to try to get more clues in play quickly, it might be worth a shot to experiment on Miss Information.
  • The Enclave of the Endlings can never play a card via Experiment. Each Endling is unique!
    • PRO TIP: Keep in mind the numbers for The Temple of Zhu Long may be a bit deceiving, since Shinobi Assassins cannot be merely discarded...
  • Out of all the 15 team villains, the deck with the most chance of discarding cards is Proletariat at 23.68%.
    • PRO TIP: Sad Proletariat is sad.
  • You can experiment on Kaargra Warfang's Title Deck, which isn't listed above. The odds of success are 100% since all Title cards have the same keyword!
    • PRO TIP: Creative cheating is encouraged in the Bloodsworn Colosseum.