Super Scientific Experimentation

The Super Scientific Tachyon has been hard at work at optimizing her efficiency while in the lab. Her latest research has revealed important data, furthering the progress of speedy science. In an effort to aid other Sentinels in their fight against the criminals who threaten the Multiverse, she has made her research data public!

Since this is Science we’re talking about here, we need a hypothesis. We are able to mathematically compute the probabilities of what will happen on any given deck if The Super Scientific Tachyon experiments on it. Let’s assume the decks are full.

To compute the chance of playing cards, we look at every possible pair of cards in the deck (including multiple copies of each card). Hero decks have 40 cards, which makes 1560 pairs (a card cannot pair with itself). Villains have 600 pairs and environments have 210. For each pair we check if they share a keyword. If so, that deck gets a “point.” Add up the points and divide by the total number of pairs, and you have the result!

Deck

% Chance of Playing

% Chance of Discarding

 Absolute Zero

 38.59

 61.41

 The Argent Adept

 36.92

 63.08

 Bunker

 40.00

 60.00

 Expatriette

 48.21

 51.79

 Fanatic

 45.00

 55.00

 Haka

 43.08

 56.92

 Legacy

 58.72

 41.28

 Mr. Fixer

 31.79

 68.21

 NightMist

 48.59

 51.41

 Ra

 43.08

 56.92

 Tachyon

 64.49

 35.51

 Tempest

 45.38

 54.62

 Unity

 31.79

 68.21

 The Visionary

 46.54

 53.46

 The Wraith

 49.62

 50.38

 Akash'Bhuta

 36.00

 64.00

 Ambuscade

 32.00

 68.00

 Apostate

 26.00

 74.00

 Baron Blade

 26.00

 74.00

 The Chairman

 33.33

 66.67

 Citizen Dawn

 36.00

 64.00

 The Ennead

 100.00

 0.00

 GloomWeaver

 15.33

 84.67

 Grand Warlord Voss

 41.67

 58.33

 The Matriarch

 39.00

 61.00

 Omnitron

 32.67

 67.33

 Plague Rat

 44.33

 55.67

 Spite

 27.17

 72.83

 Insula Primalis

 20.00

 80.00

 Megalopolis

 0.00

 100.00

 Pike Industrial Complex

 20.00

 80.00

 Realm of Discord

 20.00

 80.00

 Rook City

 0.00

 100.00

 Ruins of Atlantis

 2.86

 97.14

 Silver Gulch, 1883

 20.00

 80.00

 Tomb of Anubis

 23.81

 76.19

 Wagner Mars Base

 0.00

 100.00

Again with the Science, we need to run an experiment or two, and see if reality matches up with our expectation. Here are the results of trying “Experiment” 1,000,000 times on each full deck, reshuffled each time. It’s the Monte Carlo method at work!

Deck

% Chance of Playing

% Chance of Discarding

 Absolute Zero

 38.56

 61.44

 The Argent Adept

 36.92

 63.08

 Bunker

 39.96

 60.04

 Expatriette

 48.32

 51.68

 Fanatic

 44.96

 55.04

 Haka

 43.09

 56.91

 Legacy

 58.71

 41.29

 Mr. Fixer

 31.79

 68.21

 NightMist

 48.59

 51.41

 Ra

 43.01

 56.99

 Tachyon

 64.50

 35.50

 Tempest

 45.44

 54.56

 Unity

 31.72

 68.28

 The Visionary

 46.47

 53.53

 The Wraith

 49.73

 50.27

 Akash'Bhuta

 36.04

 63.96

 Ambuscade

 31.98

 68.02

 Apostate

 25.97

 74.03

 Baron Blade

 25.92

 74.08

 The Chairman

 33.33

 66.67

 Citizen Dawn

 36.03

 63.97

 The Ennead

 100.00

 0.00

 GloomWeaver

 15.32

 84.68

 Grand Warlord Voss

 41.56

 58.45

 The Matriarch

 39.07

 60.93

 Omnitron

 32.69

 67.31

 Plague Rat

 44.24

 55.76

 Spite

 27.20

 72.80

 Insula Primalis

 20.01

 79.99

 Megalopolis

 0.00

 100.00

 Pike Industrial Complex

 19.96

 80.04

 Realm of Discord

 20.00

 80.00

 Rook City

 0.00

 100.00

 Ruins of Atlantis

 2.85

 97.15

 Silver Gulch, 1883

 19.96

 80.04

 Tomb of Anubis

 23.78

 76.22

 Wagner Mars Base

 0.00

 100.00

Those numbers are in line with our predictions! We’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to compute the confidence intervals, because we are lazy scientists.

Conclusions gathered from the research data:

  • All environments have a high probability of discarding, with Megalopolis and Wagner Mars Base having a 100% probability.
    • PRO TIP: Use The Visionary to put a dangerous Environment card or two on the bottom of the deck, and have Tachyon discard them!
  • Tachyon and Legacy are the best heroes to experiment on, for their higher probability of playing cards.
    • PRO TIP: Keep in mind that you’re not usually using Experiment on a full deck. Two early game Lightspeed Barrages can be a shame!
  • The Wraith has a nearly 50/50 chance of either playing or discarding cards.
    • PRO TIP: Never try to knock The Wraith off balance, it’s impossible.
  • Absolute Zero and Bunker are the worst heroes to experiment on, for their lower probability of playing cards.
    • PRO TIP: Ryan Frost has been experimented on quite enough in his day, thank you very much.
  • On average, villains have a 34% chance of playing cards and a 66% chance of discarding them.
    • PRO TIP: You can almost safely experiment on Baron Blade to make him discard... which falls right into his dastardly plot! MWUAHAHAHAHAHA!

Update: Expansion data!

July 2, 2015: The tables above have been updated with decks from Mini-Pack 1, Rook City and Infernal Relics. Some experimental notes of interest:

  • The Ennead have a 100% probability of playing both cards, because their non-character cards are all One-Shots!
    • PRO TIP: Don't. Seriously, just don't.
  • Rook City joins the list of environments that have a 100% probability of discarding.
    • PRO TIP: Any edge you can get in Rook City is worth taking!
  • Each expansion has a hero with a roughly 50/50 chance of playing, and one with a much poorer chance of playing.
    • PRO TIP: NightMist and The Argent Adept can help set up the bottom of any deck for guaranteed results.
  • Unity takes the crown as the worst hero to experiment on by probability.
    • PRO TIP: Unity is not uptight about science, but the chance of getting two bots in play may be worth the risk!
Posted on December 19, 2014 .